Sir Nicholas Soames: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, what assessment his Department has made of the extent to which climate change is a threat to national security.

Mark Lancaster, Minister of State for Defence: The National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review (NSS/SDSR) 2015 noted that climate change is "increasingly a risk to the UK, with the full effects on UK national security more likely to be seen after 2035." This assessment was derived from the accompanying National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) 2015, which identified a number of national risks related to climate change, including but not limited to 'Environmental and Weather Hazards' and 'Resource Insecurity'.

In composing both the NSS/SDSR and the NSRA 2015, Government officials drew on evidence from Global Strategic Trends (GST) 5, a document produced by the Ministry of Defence's Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre. GST5 looks out to 2045, and attempts to identify the long-term threats and opportunities that may materialise in the defence and security context. It includes a chapter on the environment, which makes frequent reference to the issue of climate change, including its implications for defence and security. GST5 can be found at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/fil...

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